COASTAL administration has become a critical issue in the contemporary world as sea levels rise. Coastal regions, which house nearly 40 per cent of the world population, face challenges that endanger human lives, infrastructure and the ecosystem. Climate change brings significant coastal hazards for Bangladesh although it emits less than 0.1 per cent of global greenhouse gas. Millions of people in Bangladesh are at risk from coastal hazards because of anthropogenic climate change, making th country one of the most vulnerable in the world.

The coastal region is under a considerable threat because of the sea level rise, exacerbated by increased risks of flooding, coastal erosion, storm surges, ocean acidification, and saltwater intrusion into groundwater sources. The global temperature has already increased by one full degree Celsius compared with the pre-industrial era and a further increase of 2–3°C would see extreme weather conditions becoming ever fiercer and more frequent in the future. The compound effects of climate change will increase and amplify annual monsoon precipitation and almost double the annual maximum river discharge. This will cause higher flood levels and prolonged inundation.

According to the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, the coastal area is defined as ‘the area that is influenced by tidal action and/or salinity intrusion, either directly or indirectly.’ It is indisputable that 147 upazilas in 19 districts fall under this coastal classification, rendering them highly vulnerable to these factors. Forty-eight of them are situated in close proximity to the water, heightening their susceptibility to threats. The coastal area includes the exclusive economic zone surrounding the Bay of Bengal, encompassing a coastline spanning 710 kilometres and covering about 32 per cent of the country’s total land area or 47,201 square kilometres. Recent census data reveal that about 35.8 million people, or 28 per cent of the population, reside along the coast. Furthermore, this region accounts for about 23 per cent of gross domestic product, pushing for the need for measures to safeguard people and the economy.

Significance

THE increasing pressure on coastal areas because of population growth, urbanisation and industrialisation has led to significant environmental degradation, loss of biodiversity and reduced ecosystem services. Furthermore, issues such as plastic pollution, over-fishing and climate migration have also compounded the difficulties.

Sea level rise is one of the most significant consequences of climate change due to the ocean floor’s temperature increase. Wealthy nations are privileged because of their ability at preparing against sea-level rise. Still, low-laying delta nations, such as Bangladesh, which have less money and fewer resources to defend their coast, are in more trouble. Climatologists conclude that sea levels could rise by 25 centimeters by the middle of the century, but there are significant regional differences. So, if it is 25cm on a global average, it is typically higher around the equator. The National Geographic reports that sea levels have risen over 8 inches since 1880 and are projected to rise more than 30cm by 2050. If the sea level rises by one meter, 18 per cent of the total land mass of Bangladesh will be submerged. According to the IPCC, the relative sea level around Asia has increased faster than the global average, with coastal area loss and shoreline retreat. So, regional mean sea level will continue to rise.

Salinity intrusion is a significant problem for the coastal people of Bangladesh who depend on these sources for drinking, irrigation and livelihood. It is caused by various factors, such as sea level rise, reduced upstream flow, tidal surges, cyclones and human activities. It affects the coastal people by reducing agricultural productivity and income by damaging crops and soil fertility. Some studies estimate that salinity intrusion may lead to a decline of 15.6 per cent of high-yielding rice variety in the coastal area, threatening food security and nutrition. Salinity intrusion changes the aquatic ecosystem and the fishery sector. It increases health risks and diseases by contaminating drinking water. Salinity intrusion may increase coastal poverty incidence, dependency ratio and out-migration rate. The total amount of salinity-affected land in Bangladesh increased from 83.3 million hectares in 1973 to 105.6 million hectares in 2009 and continues.

Coastal erosion also poses a major challenge in the coastal region, especially in Bangladesh’s south-west. According to a GIS-based study, in 1995–2005, around 1,183 square kilometres of land was eroded, followed by another 1,194 square kilometres in 2005-2015 in the central part of the coastal zone. The increase in erosion rate is due to a combination of natural factors and human activities such as unregulated sand mining, land reclamation and shrimp farming. The loss of land from coastal erosion significantly impacts food security, livelihoods and natural resources.

Bangladesh frequently experiences severe weather events such as cyclones, storm surges and flooding. The events have significant impact on infrastructure, agriculture and communities. The country also remains especially vulnerable to surge flooding because of its susceptibility to tropical storms and poor defence against surge waves in the west. Furthermore, the low-lying nature of the land exacerbates this problem.

Over-fishing is a critical issue that requires immediate action to preserve marine diversity and sustain fishing practices. Moreover, over-fishing has the potential to disrupt the food chain, reduce genetic diversity, destroy habitats, threatened species and exacerbate conflicts and illegal activities.

Ocean acidification is often called ‘climate change’s evil twin’ because it is driven by the same human activities that emit GHG into the atmosphere. Ocean acidification is a phenomenon caused by the overload of carbon dioxide, which dissolves in seawater as carbonic acid and lowers the pH of the water. This process has altered calcium carbonate production, a fundamental building block for many marine organisms. In addition, it can impair coral calcification, make corals more vulnerable to bleaching, disease, and erosion and affect the availability and quality of seafood for human consumption. Coastal management can help reduce ocean acidification by lowering CO2 emissions and enhancing carbon sequestration, promoting sustainable nutrient management.

Coastal regions are the most significant source of plastic pollution worldwide. The coastal areas of Bangladesh are susceptible to climate-related threats, which could exacerbate the consequences of plastic pollution on marine ecosystems and human health. Coastal areas are rich in natural resources and biodiversity, including mangroves, coral reefs, fisheries and wildlife, all of which are under threat from plastic pollution and its effects on marine ecology. Furthermore, coastal areas contribute significantly to the economy and growth, particularly in agriculture, fisheries, tourism and trade, which rely on the health and productivity of the coastal environment. It is, therefore, imperative to promote waste prevention, collection, recycling and disposal to mitigate the harmful effects of plastic pollution.

Millions of lives hang in the balance, threatened by the relentless march of climate change. Since 2010, the number of people forced to relocate because of natural disasters exacerbated by climate change has increased to 21.5 million. Studies indicate that Bangladesh expects between 25 and 30 million people to be displaced because of this in 50 years. The Institute for Economics and Peace report assessed the exposure of 157 countries to eight ecological threats and found that 141 countries faced at least one environmental threat by 2050. In addition, the report projected that as many as 1.2 billion people worldwide could become climate refugees by 2050.

A flop show

IN 1999, Bangladesh adopted the integrated coastal zone management policy to tackle issues concerning coastal areas, natural resource sustainability and eco-friendly commercial activities. This policy was carefully crafted with an integrated approach to sectoral policies to establish a coordination structure and lay the foundation for sustainable livelihoods for the coastal communities. The policy aims to reduce vulnerabilities, empower coastal communities, secure women’s advancement, preserve critical ecosystems, and manage natural resources. Despite this, the integrated coastal zone management policy failed to meet its objectives and address climate change, which can be attributed to several factors.

First, the government has failed to implement the programme adequately for lack of coordination among different government agencies and lack of guidance on how local development organisations should interact with the government. The second major reason is that the policy to govern the coast was inadequately conceived and carried out because they lacked the requisite finance. The government has not committed sufficient funds to support the policy. Third, the policy failed to involve local communities in decision-making and did not adequately consider their needs, priorities and issues affecting their livelihoods. Fourth, there was a lack of public participation and interaction from stakeholders, leading to the policy being disconnected from the needs of the local communities.

Fifth, there has been mismanagement in assigning key coastal resources, such as fishing licences and land permits. The mismanagement has led to the exploitation of coastal resources, which has had an adverse impact on the coastal environment. Sixth, the policy was not based on sound scientific knowledge, did not incorporate industry-leading competent professionals from various disciplines and sectors in management, and was unable to assemble a regular workforce. Finally, a lack of monitoring and evaluation mechanisms, feedback loops, and a land-centric management viewpoint have made measuring its effectiveness difficult.

Furthermore, short-term solutions to ongoing problems have been prioritised over long-term sustainable strategies to mitigate the potential risks of climate change. The policy focused on symptomatic treatment rather than addressing the fundamental causes of the problems. For example, strategies like embankment structures were built to defend against floods and cyclones, but they were expensive and led to riverbank erosion and siltation. Bangladesh’s coastline is home to various flora and fauna, which this policy has negatively impacted. This policy failure caused biodiversity loss because of resource over-exploitation, pollution and habitat destruction. Land degradation due to soil erosion, sedimentation and saltwater intrusion has further exacerbated the situation. However, of people have seen their source of income disappear due to over-fishing, habitat destruction and pollution as a direct result of the policy failure.

A vision in advancement

LEARNING from the past, the government has formulated a comprehensive plan for the sustainable development of Bangladesh’s delta region — the Bangladesh Delta Plan. The Delta Plan is an integrated, long-term and adaptive strategy for the delta region, which faces various challenges from climate change, population growth, environmental degradation and natural disasters.

The Bangladesh delta plan defined the delta region as ‘the geo-morphological area, primarily defined by its low-lying surface form and location at the coast, that forms at the mouth of a river.’ Approximately 80 per cent of the land and 75 per cent of the population live in this region. The confluence of the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Meghna forms this large body of water. These three major rivers significantly impact the coastal and riverine areas that make up the delta. The deltaic coast of the country is particularly at risk from rising sea levels because of its relatively flat topography. The entire delta coast is lower than 10 metres in elevation, home to millions living in the lower regions.

The delta plan is developed by the government with assistance from the Netherlands to address issues such as climate change, water and food security, spatial planning, disaster management, environmental conservation, and economic growth. In addition, the plan considers the vulnerabilities and opportunities of the entire delta. Bangladesh put a solid commitment to the plan by integrating four key themes —environmental sustainability, economic development, social development, and governance.

The plan aims to mitigate the impact of climate change by protecting and restoring the ecosystems in the delta region. It prioritises ecosystem-based strategies to ensure sustainable management of river basins, safeguarding the coastal and marine biodiversity, and rehabilitating degraded forests and wetlands. The plan also outlines a comprehensive and cross-sectoral approach to enhance productivity in minimising disaster risks. It also integrates advanced tools and knowledge such as climate change scenarios, adaptive delta management, and strategic environmental assessment.

To facilitate the implementation of the delta plan, several institutional and regulatory changes are now being reformed. A delta governance council and an inter-ministerial forum led by the prime minister have already been established to provide strategic direction. The plan is composed of 80 investment projects, 17 adaptive strategies and six strategic goals. For instance, the plan intends to strengthen the capacity, coordination and the monitoring of delta-related issues by establishing new institutions and accumulating data in the relevant areas. This comprises river dredging and bank protection to enhance navigation and prevent erosion, as well as coastal polders and embankments to avoid flooding and saltwater intrusion.

Managing resources such as water, land, and air are expertly handled by the delta plan using a holistic and sustainable approach. A specialised delta wing is established in the General Economics Division to oversee this effort. A delta fund is also created for funding while a range of tools like a knowledge portal, climate atlas, dedicated web site and digital library are implemented. Investments are made at the right time and in sync with the natural hydrological systems using the adaptive delta management approach, ensuring maximum efficiency.

To implement the plan, the public and private sectors will fund a $38 billion investment plan. The project has received funding from international development partners such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the European Union. The government has also provided significant funding to ensure a successful execution of the overall plan. The climate smart agriculture and water management project aims at enhancing water management infrastructures, drainage, and irrigation sub-projects, improving the resilience of 125,000 hectares to climate change.

An efficient implementation and monitoring of the delta plan can eradicate extreme poverty, create employment opportunities, and boost economic growth in coastal regions. A World Bank report predicts this could result in a sustained GDP growth of more than 8 per cent until 2041. The plan aims to achieve a 60 per cent reduction in urban migration, a 50 per cent reduction in coastal zone out-migration and a 50 per cent reduction in river area out-migration.

Criticism

The delta plan has been criticised for lacking attention to local context and needs and for excessive reliance on foreign consultants and donors. The plan is overly optimistic and unrealistic because it lacks a clear implementation strategy, monitoring mechanism, and financial framework. It also fails to consider the transboundary water issues with India and China. In addition, the plan could not establish the groundwork for collecting the most recent scientific knowledge and data on the impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and sedimentation. These concerns underline the importance of the plan being more collaborative, transparent, flexible, and evidence-based if it is to be successful and long-lasting.

Nevertheless, coupled with intense climate threats, a business-as-usual scenario without the delta plan’s proper execution will result in declining agricultural production, increased unemployment, and migration. Consequently, as the World Bank estimates, this would put extra pressure on urbanisation, causing GDP growth to fall to 6.8 per cent by 2031 and 5.6 per cent by 2041. This would imply a further 25.1 million people live in moderate while 5.4 million would be in severe poverty by 2041.

The Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 is a visionary and ambitious plan to transform lives and livelihood of millions living in the world’s largest river delta. It recognises the potential of the delta as a source of economic growth, environmental conservation and enhanced climate resilience but also acknowledges the challenges of the delta as a hotspot of climate change, natural disasters, and social vulnerability. The plan is a vision for a safe, prosperous and resilient Bangladesh, which requires collective efforts and commitments from all stakeholders.

Md Zahurul Al Mamun is an independent climate researcher and Ishrat Jahan is a GIS Officer at Impact Initiative, Mogadishu, Somalia.