HISTORICALLY, Canada and the United States have enjoyed a unique relationship. It is more of a partnership that is forged by shared geography, nearly similar values, common interests, and, above all, powerful, multi-layered economic ties. They share the world’s longest international border, 5,525 miles, with 120 land ports of entry. More than that, they share a deep and long-standing defence and national security partnership, which provides them with greater security than could be achieved individually. Also crucial is that trade and commerce between these two neighbours provide millions of jobs, which ensure the flow of goods and people across the border and have proven to be vital for both countries’ economic competitiveness and prosperity. More than USD 3.4 billion worth of goods and services cross the borders each day among these two neighbours.

After Biden got elected, the two countries issued what is known as the ‘Roadmap for a Renewed Canada-US Partnership’, which outlines a set of commitments aimed at generating and formalising stronger bilateral collaboration. Furthermore, Canada and the US are key allies and defence partners who collaborate closely to address international crises and defend shared values abroad. This was a marked change in their relationships after the tumultuous time of Donald Trump.

Looking back to the Trump era (2016–2020), this historically stable relationship got into serious trouble when, in 2018, Trump arbitrarily cancelled the tri-nation trade pact, NAFTA, set up by Bill Clinton on the plea that the pact was hurting US interests. With perseverance and excellent diplomacy, Canada managed to re-enter the trilateral trade pact with the US and Mexico after over a year’s efforts. However, it is public knowledge that Trudeau, as well as others from the G7 nations, had to cope with Trumps highly undiplomatic and negative statements against the US allies in the G7 group on several issues ranging from financial contributions to NATO to WTO trade rules impacting US trade interests, which Trump wanted to drastically reverse.

The situation is poised for another turn with the US presidential elections scheduled for November this year, in which a rematch between Joseph Biden and Donald Trump is expected to occur. Following the Republican primary results in New Hampshire this week, Canada is not the only country bracing for Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House, but few have more at stake. An important factor to note is that more than three-quarters of Canada’s goods exports, accounting for more than one-quarter of the country’s GDP, go to the US.

Given Trump’s impulsiveness and deeply protectionist instincts, Canada’s business and political leaders are understandably nervous. Justine Trudeau, who will face the next elections due in 2025 and who bears the scars of dealing with the first Trump administration, sought to reassure his audience in Montreal recently, saying, ‘It was not easy the first time, and if there is a second time, it won’t be easy either… [but] we will be ready for the decision Americans make in November.’ The constant threat comes from the fact that both Biden and Trump are ‘America Firsters’ when it comes to trade. As for Canada, it is now well recognised that historically, from the ‘elder’ Trudeau period until now, all efforts to develop new markets beyond the USA met with little success. The only ray of hope is Canada’s new Indo-Pacific strategy, and a series of recent trade agreements — including one with the European Union and perhaps, in the near future, one with the UK — offer greater promise of expanding trade outside North America. It still will not match the trade volume with the USA, at least in the short term.

As for the current situation in the US, in terms of the next election outcomes, people hold hopes that, as was revealed in the 2022 midterm elections, good sense prevailed among the voters, and thus the anticipated GOP whitewash of the Democrats never saw the light of day. Given the recent international events, like the 2022 Ukraine-Russia war, Israel’s massive attack on Gaza in retaliation for the October 7 attack by Hamas, still in full force, and the trend towards an escalation of the war in other Middle Eastern countries, this has heightened the possibility of an international military conflict causing severe destabilisation of the world order. Chris Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington DC has said, ‘It’s a feeling across the US that things are not going well, and we need to respond to this with some leadership. And I think that’s an important anxiety’.

Two weeks ago, Trudeau announced that a ‘Team Canada’ task force is being launched to promote Canada’s domestic interests, prepare for a Trump presidency to deal with Trump’s unpredictability, and promote and defend Canada’s interest in and with the United States.

However, the coalition party of Trudeau’s Liberal Party, the New Democrats, led by Jagmeet Singh, maintains a less rosy outlook on this priority issue of national interest. ‘Donald Trump is frankly in a world of his own,’ he remarked. He told his party colleagues, ‘The things that he has done, the things that he has said, the type of person he is — there is no other comparison to someone who is as bad for democracy, as bad for people, and as bad for the planet as Donald Trump.’

There is another serious angle to the anticipation and apprehension of the US-Canada political future. The Canadian Conservative Party is now led by a man named Pierre Marcel Poilievre, a relatively unknown factor even two years ago, who is running an American-style politics following the path of Trump, thus being branded as ‘Trump North’, may bring in more political upheavals in the two countries’ economic relations. In this regard, Canadians are seemingly mindful of the past two years’ trend in Europe, where in Italy, France, the Netherlands, Germany, and Austria, extreme right-wing nationalist parties have swept to power.

As a result, Canada’s liberal population is arguing that this time much more is at stake. People around the world are becoming increasingly anxious and frustrated over the high price levels of essential goods, health care costs and varying degrees of housing shortages. The conservatives are capitalising on those emotions by using Trump’s playbook. The fear runs deeper than the trend that Trudeau has been falling behind in the polls for the past several months. Given the time available before the elections next year, Trudeau has an uphill task to turn the tide around. In the past year, political exchanges between the Liberal and Conservative leaders have become more personalised attacks than addressing the real issues facing the nation. Recent public utterances will likely add to what is already a strained personal relationship between Trump and Trudeau, with Trump previously describing Trudeau as ‘two-faced’ and ‘very dishonest and weak’.

In a host of recent polls in Canada about the prospects of US-Canada relationships in the second Trump presidency, 64 per cent of participants believe that US democracy cannot survive another four years of Donald Trump. What is most surprising of all the data was the one that revealed young Canadians are supporting Trump in greater numbers than even their US equivalents. This is undoubtedly a sizeable vote bank in Canada that can make a difference.

In several scholastic studies in the academic fields in Canada, it was strongly emphasised that the future of Canada’s most important bilateral relationship — that with the United States — should be viewed in the long-term context of a changing economic geography and patterns of growth. Yet a preoccupation with security issues and a resurgence of US ‘decilinism’ supersede big ideas for deepening the Canadian-US economic relationship and related factors such as climate change.

For Canada, it is crucially important to rethink the global landscape. Since the Second World War, Canada’s multilateral engagements have focused on the dominance of an established power, the US, and the institutions it has upheld. With ‘America First’, the USA is using its economic and military force to not only promote its self-interests but to undermine the very institutions it helped build. Canada must not only invest in revitalising global institutions but also help develop new ones, especially if the USA continues to withdraw from key institutions and global compacts such as the World Health Organisation, the Paris Climate Agreement, the United Nations, the World Trade Organisation and the International Criminal Court. This should not be seen as an ideological goal but as one driven by a shifting global necessity. It is time for Canada to realise that more integration with the US is not in its best interests in the long run. It can do better to follow in the footsteps of Pierre Trudeau.

Humayun Kabir (kabirruhi@gmail.com) is a former senior official at the United Nations headquarters.